Milan Enforces Italy's Strictest Outdoor Smoking Ban

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The Spin

Narrative A

The move is necessary to improve public health and air quality in Milan. It addresses environmental concerns and protects non-smokers from harmful passive smoke exposure in public spaces, particularly in areas frequented by children.

Narrative B

The measure is excessive and potentially harmful to businesses, with tobacco vendors expecting a 20-30% decrease in cigarette sales. Meanwhile, enforcement remains challenging without adequate controls, making it more symbolic than practical.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that a country will completely ban civilian tobacco consumption/smoking by December 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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