Renewables <25% of Global Electricity in 2030
MetaculusSep 01, 2023
The Facts
Japan's Cabinet on Tuesday approved new climate targets aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2035 and 73% by 2040 compared to 2013 levels. These targets extend the existing goal of a 46% reduction by 2030.
The updated energy policy targets renewables to comprise up to 50% of Japan's electricity mix by 2040, with nuclear power contributing an additional 20%. This marks a significant shift from the current mix, where fossil fuels account for nearly 70% of power generation.
Japan will establish and implement the Joint Crediting Mechanism through public-private collaborations to secure accumulated emission reductions and removals of approximately 100 MtCO2eq by FY 2030 and 200 MtCO2eq by FY 2040.
The Spin
Narrative A
These targets constitute a pragmatic approach to balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility and are backed by comprehensive energy sector reforms and substantial investment in green transformation. They provide long-term business policy stability and ensure energy security through a diverse power mix.
Narrative B
The targets fall significantly short of what's needed to meet global climate goals, with Japan, the world's fifth-biggest carbon emitter, failing to show adequate leadership. The country's continued reliance on nuclear power and slow transition away from fossil fuels undermine its climate commitments.
