Trumps economic plans could cause inflation: IMF chief economist
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IMF Warns Trump Tariffs Could Spark Global Economic Turmoil
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Above: Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a press conference in Washington, DC, US, on Oct. 24, 2024. Image copyright: Hu Yousong/Contributor/Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images
The Facts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for global growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, while raising the US growth projection to 2.7% for 2025, a 0.5% jump from its previous estimate, which would be the top performing of all developed countries.
However, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook warns that US Pres.-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, including a 10% global import tariff, 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 60% on Chinese goods, could disrupt global supply chains and increase inflation.
The Spin
Left narrative
Trump’s tariff threats absolutely risk igniting a global economic downturn. His retaliation schemes, which he plans to wage from China and the EU to Mexico and Canada, are likely to escalate trade wars, harming US adversaries and allies alike. Studies show that US GDP losses could hit half a trillion dollars, causing higher consumer costs and crippling industries reliant on imports. Global collaboration — not isolation — offers a wiser path.
Right narrative
Trump’s tariffs are meant to enforce national priorities, ranging from economic growth to immigration. Without taking office yet, he's already pressured Canada and Mexico on border security, securing commitments like a $1.3B investment from Ottawa. He's not using tariffs for the sake of using tariffs — he's using them as a diplomatic tool to boost the national economy and uphold American values, addressing issues from free speech to treaty violations.
