Four Israeli Soldiers, 200 Palestinians Released

Above: Four Israeli hostages, (L-R) Naama Levy, Liri Albag, Daniella Gilboa and Karina Ariev, wave on a stage before Hamas fighters hand them over to a team from the Red Cross in Gaza City on Jan. 25, 2025. Image copyright: Omar Al-Qattaa/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Hamas on Saturday freed four female Israeli soldiers — Karina Ariev (20), Daniella Gilboa (20), Naama Levy (20), and Liri Albag (19) — held hostage in Gaza for 477 days since their capture during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on the Nahal Oz military base.

  • The released soldiers were part of Unit 414 of the Field Intelligence Battalion — stationed at a border observation post that was overrun during the attack — where 66 soldiers were killed and seven female soldiers were taken hostage.

  • The release ceremony took place in Gaza City's Palestine Square, where the soldiers appeared in military-style uniforms, waving to crowds before being transferred to Red Cross vehicles for their journey back to Israel.


The Spin

Narrative A

While the Israel-Hamas cease-fire may not end the war, the release represents a significant humanitarian achievement, demonstrates the effectiveness of diplomatic negotiations in securing the freedom of hostages, and paves the way for increased humanitarian aid and potentially further exchanges.


Narrative B

The staged nature of the release ceremony — with Hamas fighters prominently displayed and hostages appearing to act under duress — shows the group's cynical exploitation of the situation for propaganda purposes and failure to meet its obligation to first release civilian hostages as agreed.



Metaculus Prediction




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