FDA Proposes Cutting Cigarette Nicotine Levels by 95%

Above: VLN Cigarettes, which contain a small amount of nicotine, are produced and boxed inside a manufacturing facility outside of Winston-Salem, North Carolina, in the town of Mocksville. Image copyright: Cornell Watson/Contributor/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released a proposal on Wednesday to limit nicotine levels in cigarettes to 0.7 milligrams per gram of tobacco, which represents a roughly 95% reduction from current levels.

  • The proposed rule would apply to cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and most cigars, but excludes e-cigarettes, nicotine pouches, smokeless tobacco, and premium cigars.


The Spin

Narrative A

Given that nicotine's addictive nature sustains smoking, which causes immense harm to our health, this policy would significantly reduce tobacco addiction and prevent new users from becoming dependent. Studies show that very low nicotine content cigarettes help people smoke less and quit entirely. What better reason to act than to save millions of lives, reduce diseases, and support a healthier future?

Narrative B

Legally enforced lower nicotine levels will likely cause more harm than its proponents would like to admit. Such a policy would push the sale of cigarettes into the black market, empowering criminal organizations and undermining public safety. It could also lead to billions of dollars in economic losses and disproportionately affect marginalized communities.


Metaculus Prediction