Lower nicotine requirements in cigarettes could be coming soon
NPR Online NewsJAN 1
FDA Proposes Cutting Cigarette Nicotine Levels by 95%
Above: VLN Cigarettes, which contain a small amount of nicotine, are produced and boxed inside a manufacturing facility outside of Winston-Salem, North Carolina, in the town of Mocksville. Image copyright: Cornell Watson/Contributor/The Washington Post via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Given that nicotine's addictive nature sustains smoking, which causes immense harm to our health, this policy would significantly reduce tobacco addiction and prevent new users from becoming dependent. Studies show that very low nicotine content cigarettes help people smoke less and quit entirely. What better reason to act than to save millions of lives, reduce diseases, and support a healthier future?
Narrative B
Legally enforced lower nicotine levels will likely cause more harm than its proponents would like to admit. Such a policy would push the sale of cigarettes into the black market, empowering criminal organizations and undermining public safety. It could also lead to billions of dollars in economic losses and disproportionately affect marginalized communities.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that a country will completely ban civilian tobacco consumption/smoking by December 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
