The Surprisingly Unpredictable Golden Globes
AtlanticJAN 2
'The Brutalist,' 'Emilia Perez,' 'Shogun' Dominate 2025 Golden Globes
Above: 82nd Annual Golden Globes Red Carpet Rollout at The Beverly Hilton on Jan. 2, 2025. Image copyright: Michael Buckner/Penske Media via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The 2025 Golden Globes demonstrated a significant shift toward recognizing riskier, more artistic works over mainstream entertainment, suggesting a new era of awards recognition that prioritizes creative merit over commercial success.
Narrative B
This year's Golden Globes focus on smaller, less commercially successful films risks alienating general audiences, threatening the relevance of awards shows. Proven hits like "Wicked," "Dune: Part Two," and "Challengers" were largely overlooked during the broadcast.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that a performer will win a 4th Oscar for Acting by June 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
