China’s population falls for a third straight year, posing challenges for its government and economy
Associated PressJAN 5
China's Population Falls for Third Year
Above: A woman holding a baby in a park in Fuyang, east China's Anhui province, on Jan. 16, 2025. Image copyright: STR/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China's population drop, due to the one-child policy's legacy, signals economic and power decline. An aging society with fewer workers strains resources, diminishing its global clout. While it will require strong demographic maintenance on its own part, this scenario offers the West a chance to attract industries, lead innovation, and fill geopolitical leadership gaps left by the declining Chinese empire.
Pro-China narrative
Contrary to Western media portrayals of China's demographic crisis, the population changes are not as dire when accounting for China's vast size, which makes percentage declines look worse than in smaller nations. In reality, China's growth is still significant compared to many Western countries, and China is actively addressing these issues with policies like raising the retirement age and promoting technological education.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that China's population will be at least 1.36B in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
