Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro Looks to Trump and the U.S. to Avoid Prison
New York TimesJAN 6
Brazil: Bolsonaro Barred From Attending Trump Inauguration
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Above: Former Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro speaks during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center on March 4, 2023, in National Harbor, Md. Image copyright: Alex Wong/Staff/ Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Left narrative
There's a travel ban on Bolsonaro for a reason — and allowing him to travel to attend the Trump's inauguration ceremony would put his own private interest ahead of the public's. Bolsonaro is a coup plotter who has long advocated for Jan. 8, 2023, rioters to flee the country to avoid prosecution, so it's very likely that he would not return to Brazil as well.
Right narrative
This is the latest politically-motivated judicial decision against Bolsonaro as the country's top court colludes with the leftist government in an abhorrent lawfare targeting the opposition. If Bolsonaro were to flee Brazil and claim political asylum, he would have done that after he attended the inauguration of Argentina's Javier Milei in December 2023.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
