Report: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Rising Impact Risk for 2032

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Feb 10, 2025

Above: The James Webb Space Telescope. Image copyright: Alex Wong/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Imagesstory last updated Feb 12

The Facts

NASA has announced that the James Webb Space Telescope will conduct specialized observations of the 2024 YR4 asteroid in March. Current estimates suggest it could be between 40 and 90 meters wide, with varying levels of reflectivity affecting size calculations.
The asteroid was first detected by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Chile at the end of last year and has since been closely monitored by international space agencies.
The probability of the asteroid impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, has increased from an initial 1.2% to approximately 2.3%, making it the most significant impact threat identified in the past two decades and earning a rare Level 3 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.

The Spin

Narrative A

This asteroid is a legitimate threat that requires immediate attention and monitoring. Scientists must seriously consider potential defensive measures, including the possibility of deflection missions similar to the successful DART test.

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Narrative B

Rising impact probability is a normal part of the observation process. Like previous potentially hazardous asteroids, continued monitoring will likely result in the threat being downgraded or eliminated entirely as orbital calculations become more precise.