Study: 34% of the Arctic's Carbon 'Sink' is Now a 'Source'

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The Facts

  • According to a newly published study that analyzed data from 200 monitoring sites between 1990 and 2020, 34% of the Arctic-boreal zone has transformed from a carbon sink to a carbon source. This percentage rises to 40% when wildfire emissions are included.

  • The Arctic boreal zone — spanning 26M square kilometers across Siberia, Alaska, Nordic countries, and Canada — has historically acted as Earth's carbon-deep freezer, storing approximately half of the planet's soil carbon pool.

  • While 49% of the Arctic region shows increased vegetation growth and longer growing seasons, only 12% of these greening areas demonstrate an annual increase in net carbon dioxide uptake, indicating that warming temperatures and permafrost thaw are offsetting potential carbon storage benefits.


The Spin

Narrative A

The Arctic's transformation into a carbon source represents a critical tipping point in Earth's climate system. The region's shift from carbon sink to source, driven by warming temperatures and increased wildfire activity, signals an urgent need for immediate action to reduce fossil fuel emissions and prevent the further destabilization of this vital ecosystem and Earth's entire climate as a whole.


Narrative B

The increased greening and longer growing seasons in the Arctic suggest potential for enhanced carbon storage capacity. The observed vegetation growth in 49% of the region, coupled with increased summer carbon uptake, indicates that some Arctic ecosystems may partially adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. Complex natural processes should also be taken into account.



Metaculus Prediction




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