Alcohol Stocks Fall After US Surgeon General Cancer Risk Warning

story
Above: Duty-free liquor display at the Miami International Airport in Miami, Florida. Image copyright: Jeffrey Greenberg/Contributor/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Shares of major alcohol companies — including Corona owner Constellation Brands, Bud Light owner Anheuser-Busch, and Jack Daniel's owner Brown-Forman — declined on Friday following US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy’s advisory on alcohol's cancer risks.

  • Murthy said, "Alcohol is a well-established, preventable cause of cancer" that has led to roughly 100K cases and 20K deaths annually, most notably "breast, mouth, and throat cancers." He claimed, "16.4% of total breast cancer cases are attributable to alcohol consumption."

Show more

The Spin

Narrative A

While no one needs to completely cut ties with alcohol, Americans should drink much less to lower cancer risks. Alcohol is linked to a statistically significant rise in both cancer rates and deaths, though reducing intake to one per day for women and two for men can help mitigate these risks. Moderation, understanding serving sizes, and choosing lower-calorie options if you must drink can help without total abstinence.

MD Anderson Cancer Center

Narrative B

Alcohol isn't the healthiest choice, but fear-mongering about its cancer risks can mislead the public. The increase in absolute risk from moderate drinking is minimal, often inflating panic rather than providing a balanced perspective. Understanding the difference between relative and absolute risk shows that even with consumption, the likelihood of developing cancer remains low.

Substack

Metaculus Prediction