US to End Anti-IS Group Operation in Iraq
The Facts
The US Department of State and the Iraqi government have announced a two-phase transition plan to end the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State group (IS) operations in Iraq by Sept. 2025 and in Syria a year later.
According to senior US officials, this isn't a withdrawal but a transition into an expanded bilateral security partnership. However, details on how many American troops will leave Iraq as part of each phase haven't been revealed.
The Spin
Narrative A
This is a move in the right direction now that the threat of IS in Iraq has successfully been contained. The just-announced orderly transition into an enduring bilateral strategic partnership opens a new era in US-Iraq relations, one that will go beyond security. Given the current instability in the Middle East, maintaining positive ties with Baghdad is crucial to US interests.
Narrative B
This transition plan would be great news if the mission were indeed accomplished. The mission is not complete, however, and leaving Iraq, as things stand, could have disastrous consequences. Such a premature departure would send a message of weakness that is likely to encourage Iran and catalyze the resurgence of the so-called Islamic State group, worsening the Middle East crisis.
Narrative C
As usual, the national security establishment is fearmongering about a potential US withdrawal — even if it will be no withdrawal at all, but a conditions-based transition that could extend the mission for years to come. US interests would be best served by not risking the lives of American troops and letting regional actors keep IS in check.
