US Job Growth Spikes, Unemployment Falls to 3.8%

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The Facts

  • US employers exceeded expectations in March, adding 303K more nonfarm jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

  • The rise beat Dow Jones' estimate of 200K job additions, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Biden can celebrate this significant achievement, marking the 39th consecutive month of job growth. During his presidency, 15M jobs have been created — starkly contrasting with the crisis he inherited. Now he must project his message to the masses to bolster his reelection chances.

Republican narrative

Biden shouldn't celebrate too much, because there are still larger problems underpinning the economy, exacerbated by his administration's failed policies. Long-term projections foresee budget deficits growing steadily, and attribute much to his ongoing public spending splurges.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story