Today’s D Brief: Ukrainian incursion continues; Israeli border war, mapped; Upping US production; USAF's record sales; And a bit more...
Defense OneAUG 2024
Ukraine Makes First Acknowledgement of Kursk Offensive
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Above: Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the president of Ukraine, gives an interview to the Ukrainian media on June 15, 2023. Image copyright: Global Images Ukraine/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US supports Ukraine's right to defend itself from Russian aggression, including if it feels it has to attack inside Russia's Kursk region to achieve its war aims. These attacks are not escalatory.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Russia sees any form of compromise as a sign of weakness. Therefore, it must be made to feel that the war is not going according to its plans for peace to be eventually achieved in Ukraine.
Pro-Russia narrative
This is a large-scale provocation from Ukraine who are indiscriminately firing weapons at civilian buildings and residential homes. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin is meeting with military heads to ensure that the threat is eliminated.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 32% chance that Russian territory will be reduced by at least 1% before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
