Ukraine Advances in Kursk, Russia Heaps Pressure on Ukraine's East

Above: Ukrainian armored infantry vehicle ROSHEL travels past an unfinished church on the road from Sumy to the border with Russia on August 15, 2024 near the Rusian border in the Sumy region of Ukraine. Image copyright: Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ukrainian forces have made more advances in Russia's Kursk region, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Monday. However, ISW — a US military think that tracks troop positions in the conflict — also reported that Russian forces advanced in a number of salients in Ukraine's east.

  • According to ISW, geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian troops had advanced in Vishnevka. It also cited Russian military bloggers who reported that Ukraine made advances near Russkoye Porechnoye, Agronom, and Spalnoye. Ukraine also reportedly destroyed a third bridge in the region.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Ukraine's bold offensive in Kursk has lifted morale and changed the narrative among international partners that Ukraine would continue to suffer setbacks against a larger enemy. However, the strategy has risks. Committing troops to Kursk could leave forces vulnerable in Ukraine's east, and Ukraine's leadership must be mindful of this as the conflict progresses.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine believed that attacking inside Russia would strengthen its hand in potential peace negotiations. However, all it has done is put peace negotiations out of the question. Ukraine will pay the price for launching this offensive.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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