Trump Says He'd 'Encourage' Russia to Attack NATO Allies Who Don't Pay

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The Facts

  • Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina on Saturday, former Pres. Donald Trump said he would "encourage" Russia to do "whatever the hell" it wants to NATO members that didn't meet their financial obligations to the military alliance.

  • Trump claimed that, during an unspecified meeting of leaders of NATO countries, he told "one of the presidents of a big country" that the US wouldn't defend an ally from a potential Russian invasion if they "don't pay" their bills.


The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

It's utterly incomprehensible that Donald Trump — a likely Republican presidential nominee — is calling for wars, promoting chaos, and suggesting the US wouldn't defend NATO allies from invaders if he's re-elected. While the former president's words are a reminder of the divisive rhetoric fueling his campaign and an attempt to distract his followers from his criminal trials, his comments indicate a second Trump presidency could jeopardize US commitment to the transatlantic alliance.

Pro-Trump narrative

Support for NATO is overly burdensome on the US; Washington is paying more than its fair share, thereby draining its financial and military resources. It's also an excessive financial burden to guarantee the defense of 30 nations that are behind on their payments. Moreover, the US has provided Ukraine, a non-NATO member, with more financial support than any other country. It's time the US re-evaluates the military alliance's membership and pulls out if the bloc isn't meeting its purpose.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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