Craig Murray: A Very Peculiar Triumph
Consortium NewsNOV 2024
Taiwan on High Alert With 90 Chinese Ships Nearby
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Above: Two Taiwan made Kuang Hua VI class missile boats attend the Ministry National of Defense exercise outside the Zuoying navy harbor on Jan. 31, 2024. Image copyright: Wang Gang/Contributor/VCG via Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China's escalating "gray zone" tactics — cyberattacks, military drills, and coercive maneuvers — are designed to undermine Taiwan's defenses while avoiding open conflict, with Xi Jinping's centralized control and urgency to assert dominance over the island only heightening the risk of aggression. Despite uncertainties about the incoming Trump administration, the US must sustain military support and clarify red lines to counteract Beijing's threats.
Pro-China narrative
China's response to Taiwan's independence efforts is a justified defense of its sovereignty and territorial integrity under the one-China principle. US support for separatist action through diplomatic "stopovers" undermines peace in the Taiwan Strait and destabilizes Sino-US relations. As the US continues to interfere both diplomatically and militarily, Beijing has every right to position its own defenses in the region.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 25% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
