SCOTUS to Decide if Trump Can Run for President

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The Facts

  • Setting the stage for what will be a historic case, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Friday said it will decide if former Pres. Donald Trump can be kept off state primary ballots in the US presidential election this year.

  • It will be the first time the court has to weigh the meaning and reach of the US Constitution's 14th Amendment — enacted in 1868 following the country's Civil War. Its provisions include barring individuals from serving in public office if they've "engaged in insurrection."


The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

As Biden's tour de force of a speech on Friday rightly highlighted, Trump has already demonstrated he's willing to sacrifice American democracy for his own malevolent aims. This is a momentous moment for the country, and in order to protect American democracy, Trump cannot be allowed to be the country's president again.

Pro-Trump narrative

Keeping Trump off the 2024 ballot would be a monumental mistake. He's the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican candidate, and Democrats' efforts to keep him off the ballot would only see voters lose their right to choose. Going through with this would disenfranchise half the country and set off a dangerous precedent that would be the true threat to American democracy.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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