Russia, Ukraine Exchange Border Strikes After Russian Advance

Above: A drone view of a damaged apartment building following a Russian air strike on May 14, 2024 near Kharkiv, Ukraine. Image copyright: Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • As Russia continues its latest advance into Ukraine, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian troops have reached between five and 10 km (6.2 miles) into Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Ukraine said 10 civilians were killed by Russian attacks Sunday and 40 captured.

  • Russia's Belgorod region said two apartment buildings were damaged but no people were injured from a Ukrainian drone attack Monday morning. The day before, however, 13 were injured after multiple towns in Belgorod were attacked.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is currently on the defensive due to a previous lack of support from Western allies, but that could change thanks to emboldened statements coming out of Europe. Some European officials have even considered sending at least a limited number of troops to defend Kyiv. If NATO as a whole were to agree on this level of solidarity, Russia could be defeated.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has entered Kharkiv quite easily, which, while not an official victory on the ground, could spell defeat within the Western mind. With just a limited number of troops, Russia has captured 100 square kilometers of Ukraine's second most important city — this leaves Kharkiv severely wounded and vulnerable to stronger attacks in the future.


Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO