Once Ukraine's offensive in Kursk fails, as it was always destined to, Kyiv's officials will realize they have to start negotiating for peace. Russia has always favored a peaceful settlement, but was forced to take military action to protect the Russian-speaking people of the Donbas region after Ukraine chose to disregard the Minsk agreements.
Days after stating that peace talks are no longer relevant, Russian Pres. Putin has once again changed his mind and suggested he wants the war to end through dialogue. Putin continues to distort reality by suggesting that Russia is the victim, when it is the one that has terrorized Ukraine with its aggression.
There is a 1% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.