Polls: Trump Leads Opponents, Biden's Approval Rating Drops

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The Facts

  • According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll published Sunday, former Pres. Donald Trump leads his GOP opponents in several measures of popularity. The news came ahead of his resounding victory in the Iowa caucuses, and amid revelations Pres. Joe Biden's approval rating has sunk to a 15 year presidential low of 33%.

  • The national survey found Trump (68%) ahead of Ron DeSantis (11%) and Nikki Haley (12%) in having the best chance of winning the presidential election in November — Vivek Ramaswamy received just 2%. Trump was also rated "the strongest leader" and the "best qualified" by respondents.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

While these polls aren't showing Biden in the best position, the president's re-election campaign has been strategizing for every possibility regarding the general election. If Trump is his opponent, they'll successfully point to the former president's increasing use of Nazi-like rhetoric and his tax cuts for the rich. If Haley is the GOP nominee, then Biden can point to her omission of slavery when asked about the causes of the Civil War. Biden has more than enough time and resources to make a comeback.

Republican narrative

Trump's current polling doesn't mean he's a shoo-in for the nomination. The former president is facing tough competitors in Haley and DeSantis, as well as ongoing litigation and lawsuits. Trump's confidence comes from retaining 50% of the vote in polls. Still, there are many more states to go, and if Haley and DeSantis start to gain higher double-digit results, he could see a decline as the primary season continues.

Pro-Trump narrative

Beyond the insurmountable polling advantage Trump currently enjoys as the primaries begin, the former president has also welcomed the endorsements of almost two dozen US senators as he competes against his bought-and-paid-for opponents. In fact, Trump's former opponent, Marco Rubio, who used to call Trump a "con artist," has thrown his weight behind the frontrunner because he knows the America First policies he desires won't get passed if the neocons on the ballot get nominated.


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