Nicaragua's Constitutional Reform Passes First Reading

Above: Daniel Ortega during the 23rd States of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America - People's Trade Treaty (ALBA-TCP) Summit at Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on April 24, 2024. Image copyright: Gaby Oraa/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Nicaragua's National Assembly unanimously approved on Friday the first reading of a constitutional reform that would repeal 38 articles and change 135 others, including implementing the expansion of presidential powers.

  • Given that constitutional amendments in Nicaragua must be approved in two legislative periods, Gustavo Porras, the legislature's president, has announced that a second and final reading will take place on Jan. 10.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This is the most radical constitutional reform that Ortega has ever proposed during his authoritarian rule of Nicaragua. He's formalized a totalitarian system that has existed for six years, all while claiming that his government abides by the law of the land amid growing international isolation. Such shenanigans aren't new, and pressure on the Ortega regime to reverse these draconian decisions must continue.

Establishment-critical narrative

This reform, expected to enter into force next year after passing its second reading, represents a crucial — and historic — step forward for Nicaraguan citizens. These amendments will update the constitution to give the people prominence and power, consolidate their rights, and reaffirm the country's independence and sovereignty.


Metaculus Prediction


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