New Poll Shows Harris Expanding Lead

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Above: Democratic presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Image copyright: Justin Sullivan/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading her Republican opponent Donald Trump 45%-41%, with a margin of error of 2%.

  • Harris also gained ground among women and Hispanic voters by a margin of 49%- 36%, while Trump was up by 7% among men and White voters. Harris' 52% unfavorability was lower than Trump's 59%, and she led 47%-39% in favorability.

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The Spin

Democratic narrative

Kamala Harris' poll numbers have skyrocketed at the perfect time. Not only is the election just around the corner but her prime-time debate with Trump is scheduled for Sept. 10, giving her an opportunity to speak to even more voters. Harris gained popularity after her debate with former Vice President Mike Pence in 2020. Now, she'll do so again against Trump, no matter what Republicans say about her public speaking abilities.

New York Times

Republican narrative

Pre-election polls have always been slanted in favor of Democrats, largely due to the fact that older White women who tend to answer polls cast Democratic votes. However, when older White women and men vote on election day, Trump has crushed the Democrats, which is why his 2016 victory was so "surprising" in light of polling data. Harris' marginal lead in the polls means nothing.

American Conservative

Metaculus Prediction