Netanyahu Approves Lebanon Cease-fire 'in Principle'

Above: Heavy smoke billows after an Israeli air strike that targeted an area in Beirut's southern suburb on November 25, 2024. Image copyright: Marwan Naamani/Contributor/Picture Alliance via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly agreed to a cease-fire in Lebanon "in principle," with his cabinet set to vote on the proposal on Tuesday. 

  • Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said on Monday that enforcement will be the key to whether the cease-fire holds, as Israel seeks to prevent Hezbollah from returning to South Lebanon or rearming.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

It's imperative that a cease-fire in Lebanon is agreed upon and properly enforced. Both sides have been willing to compromise, and US mediation has seemingly bore fruit. The US will continue to play a leading role in de-escalating this terrible regional conflict and ensuring that the Lebanese border remains quiet.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though Israel rightfully still has reservations regarding a cease-fire in Lebanon, the time is ripe for a deal. Israel has decimated Hezbollah's leadership, seriously degraded its rocket arsenal, and destroyed its terrorist infrastructure along the border, demonstrating a clear Israeli victory over the group. Nothing is yet set in stone, but Israel's campaign in Lebanon has been quite successful.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The only reason progress has been made on a cease-fire in Lebanon is because Netanyahu wants to "gift" a truce to Trump when he enters office in January. Either way, Israel's genocide in Gaza has continued unabated and must not be forgotten.

Narrative D

Israel is looking for a cease-fire in Lebanon because it failed miserably to reoccupy South Lebanon. Though a deal has not yet been agreed upon, Hezbollah has remained steadfast in its defense of Lebanese sovereignty and the Lebanese people, successfully preventing Israel from achieving its goals.


Metaculus Prediction


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