Mexico's Lower House Passes Judicial Reform Despite Protests

Above: Mexico's Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador speaks during the last State Of The Union Report at Zocalo on Sept. 01, 2024 in Mexico City, Mexico. Image copyright: Manuel Velasquez/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Mexico's Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday approved (359 to 135) Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador's judicial reform, moving the bill to the Senate where the ruling Morena party is close to a two-thirds supermajority.

  • This comes as demonstrators, including students and court employees who have gone on strike, gathered outside Congress on Tuesday and blocked access to the lower house in protest against the proposed overhaul.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

It's urgent that Mexico reforms its judicial system, as most Mexicans have expressed their desire to be able to vote for judges and magistrates rather than being subject to the dictates of the judiciary elite. These changes are part of a broader push to bring more equality and social justice to Mexico.

Pro-establishment narrative

As Obrador enters his final month in office, his goal is clearly to consolidate his Morena party's power and reform the judicial system to install a totalitarian regime in Mexico. Instead of promoting true independence and democracy, these plans will do the opposite, by lowering professional standards and creating further vulnerabilities.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO