Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

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Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Above: Democratic presidential candidate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential candidate, former Pres. Donald Trump, shake hands ahead of the presidential debate at National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, PA on Sept. 10, 2024. Image copyright: Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Facts

  • New Marist College Sun Belt state polls found Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and former Pres. Donald Trump locked in tight races in three key battleground states that, combined, account for 43 Electoral College votes.

  • In Arizona, Trump has a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters statewide, 50% to 49%, as the Democrat trails by two points among Latinos — a demographic that Pres. Joe Biden carried by 24 points in 2020.

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The Spin

Democratic narrative

This set of polls is big for Kamala Harris, who may flip North Carolina blue for the first time since Obama won there in 2008. She is also showing promise in Georgia — the battleground state where Trump has his best results.

New York Times

Republican narrative

Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Washington Examiner

Metaculus Prediction

Public figures in this story

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Go Deeper

US Election: Electoral System Overview
US Election: Electoral System Overview
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US Presidential Election 2024 Overview
US Presidential Election 2024 Overview
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