Japan: Shigeru Ishiba Announces Snap Polls on Oct. 27

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Above: Shigeru Ishiba at a press conference following his election in the party leadership elections on Sept. 27, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. Image copyright: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Shigeru Ishiba — who was Friday elected leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and is set to be sworn in as prime minister Tuesday — has announced snap polls on Oct. 27.

  • Dissolving Japan's Lower House, Ishiba reportedly said Monday that it was important for the new administration "to be judged by the people as soon as possible."

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The Spin

Narrative A

It's the legal duty of a sitting prime minister to decide when parliament is to be dissolved and a general election held. But parliament hasn't declared Ishiba PM yet, making this announcement illegal. The decision to conduct general elections in less than a month has everything to do with Ishiba's quest to capitalize on his mandate and give the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party as little time as possible to prepare under Yoshihiko Noda.

Narrative B

Ishiba has taken over the reins of a scandal-plagued party with dwindling public support. He is poised to lead a country facing regional tensions, a severe cost-of-living crisis, and a falling birth rate. Yet, by radically scaling back some of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reflationary policy, the self-confessed lone wolf can revive his party's fortunes and establish a more assertive Japan that can reduce its reliance on the US for its defense.

Metaculus Prediction