Japan: Former Defense Minister Announces Bid to Succeed PM
The Facts
Former Japanese Defense Minister and Secretary-General of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba announced on Saturday his candidacy to succeed Fumio Kishida as party chief and prime minister.
This is his fifth — and allegedly final — attempt to win LDP elections and automatically take office as the leader of Japan due to the party's majority in parliament, which has been uninterrupted since 2012.
The Spin
Narrative A
Ishiba is a well-experienced and respected politician who enjoys popular support to become prime minister and has what it takes to rein in party factions involved in scandals and ensure that the LDP will abide by the rules. After 38 years in politics and four unsuccessful runs for party leadership, it's time for Ishiba to take the position.
Narrative B
Ishiba may be popular in Japan, particularly with grassroots party members and media, but he has very little hope of winning this internal election, as conservative factions despise him for his past attacks on Shinzo Abe. Given the weight of lawmakers in this process, the best he will be able to achieve is a repeat of 2012 — defeat in a runoff vote.
