Israel to Withdraw Some Troops from Gaza

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The Facts

  • The Israeli military announced on Monday that it will start withdrawing thousands of its soldiers from Gaza, at least temporarily, citing the war's effects on Israel's economy. The move also comes amid pressure from the US to deescalate conflict due to the death toll in Gaza. A spokesman emphasized that this doesn't indicate any compromise on Israel’s intention to continue fighting until Hamas is destroyed. He also said that some soldiers may be called back later this year.

  • Residents of Gaza City in the north reported on Monday that Israeli tanks began to withdraw from some districts, while residents in central Gaza reported that fighting continued unabated, with tanks pushing into al-Bureij and air strikes targeting al-Nusseirat, al-Maghazi, and the southern city of Khan Younis. Meanwhile, Hamas also fired rockets at Tel Aviv early Monday.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities, it must wage this war in a humane way. The number of civilians being killed will only galvanize Palestinians to oppose peace, pushing them into the arms of Hamas. A more thorough and surgical campaign is now needed to eliminate Hamas's leadership in Gaza, as Israel is losing global support.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Israel's strategy has gained control over large swaths of the Gaza Strip, and considering growing internal and external pressure on the Israeli government to wind down its combat operations, it is appropriate for its forces to reorient their military posture to a less intense phase of fighting. Despite this development, however, Hamas's military capabilities still must be eliminated so that the group can never launch a terrorist attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip uninhabitable. Though the US — Israel's biggest ally — wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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