Exit Poll Shows Three-Way Tie in Irish General Election

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Above: Voters in Dublin heading to the polls to elect 'Teachtai Dala' (TDs) to the Dail Eireann, the lower house of parliament, on Nov. 29, 2024. Image copyright: Mostafa Darwish/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • An Ipsos/B&A exit poll for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin released just as polls closed in Ireland on Friday shows coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and opposition Sinn Féin tied within the margin of error.

  • Sinn Féin comes first with 21.1% of the vote, closely followed by Taoiseach Simon Harris' Fine Gael at 21% and Michéal Martin's Fianna Fáil at 19.5%. Independents comprise the fourth largest group with 12.7% of the share.

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The Spin

Narrative A

This exit poll stresses what most Irish citizens were already expecting. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will remain in power, and nothing will change except for the third party in the coalition. That's not to say that voters are happy with mainstream politicians, especially as independent candidates have polled quite well.

Spectator (UK)

Narrative B

Forming a new government will be no easy task, with official results and later seats potentially changing the power balance between the three main parties. If the exit poll is accurate, then an unstable coalition of four or more parties may be needed as Social Democrats — the largest among the rest — is unlikely to enter government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Irish Examiner

Metaculus Prediction