Israeli military says it recovered bodies of 6 hostages in Gaza operation
New York PostAUG 2024
Report: IDF's Actions Likely Influenced Hamas' Killing of Six Hostages
Above: Released hostages hold posters of their loved ones, who are still held hostage in the Gaza Strip, on Dec. 17, 2024, in Tel Aviv, Israel. Image copyright: Amir Levy/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Finally, the IDF has admitted it failed in its mission to bring the hostages back home alive. The deaths could have been prevented through earlier negotiations. The continued military pressure is endangering the remaining hostages' lives, and only a diplomatic solution through a hostage deal can ensure the safe return of innocent civilians still in captivity.
Narrative B
The military operated carefully in the area despite low intelligence indicators of hostage presence. The IDF's actions were necessary for dismantling Hamas' infrastructure and mitigating future threats. The IDF was only exerting relentless pressure on Hamas to free the captives; the terrorists bear sole responsibility for murdering the hostages.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that at least 109 hostages captured in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack will be freed before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
