Southern Brazil Floods: Death Toll Hits 143, Rivers Rise Again as Rain Returns

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The Facts

  • Authorities in Brazil's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, on Sunday raised the official death toll from the worst natural calamity to ever hit the state to at least 145, with 132 people reportedly missing and 619K displaced.

  • According to national and state authorities, further flooding is very likely in most of the state as nearly all of its major — and already overflowing — rivers rose again over the weekend due to fresh heavy rains.


The Spin

Narrative A

Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are being linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why we must implement policies to cool the global temperature, to save lives and avoid billions of dollars in damage.

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.


Metaculus Prediction