First Severe Human Case of Bird Flu in US Shows Signs of Viral Mutations

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Above: A view of chickens and roosters at a farm as California declares state of emergency to prevent new public health crisis on bird flu in Pescadero, California, US, on Dec. 20, 2024. Image copyright:  Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • On Thursday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that samples collected from the first severe human case of the H5N1 bird flu virus in the nation showed signs of mutations not present in animal samples.

  • The CDC stated that the human sample contained mutations that differed from samples taken from poultry present on the affected Louisiana resident's property, indicating that the mutations occurred within the patient. The patient is over the age of 65 and has a preexisting respiratory illness.

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The Spin

Narrative A

The US response to the bird flu outbreak has been a slow-motion disaster, and it could very easily turn into a pandemic before we know it. The massive spread among dairy herds and farmworkers has made it only a matter of time before spillover occurs into the general public. The time to take this seriously was yesterday, and the government must mobilize to ensure this illness is contained.

CNN

Narrative B

Despite this development, the risk assessment from authorities with regards to bird flu remains unchanged, and robust prevention and reporting measures are doing their job to keep the illness contained. There has been no human-to-human spread and history tells us that bird flu has a difficult time spreading among humans. Let's remain vigilant but not give into hysteria.

Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

Metaculus Prediction