‘Severe’ Bird Flu in the U.S.: Latest Updates
TimeDEC 2024
First Severe Human Case of Bird Flu in US Shows Signs of Viral Mutations
Above: A view of chickens and roosters at a farm as California declares state of emergency to prevent new public health crisis on bird flu in Pescadero, California, US, on Dec. 20, 2024. Image credit: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu/Contributor via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The US response to the bird flu outbreak has been a slow-motion disaster, and it could very easily turn into a pandemic before we know it. The massive spread among dairy herds and farmworkers has made it only a matter of time before spillover occurs into the general public. The time to take this seriously was yesterday, and the government must mobilize to ensure this illness is contained.
Narrative B
Despite this development, the risk assessment from authorities with regards to bird flu remains unchanged, and robust prevention and reporting measures are doing their job to keep the illness contained. There has been no human-to-human spread and history tells us that bird flu has a difficult time spreading among humans. Let's remain vigilant but not give into hysteria.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 5% chance that the CDC will report 10K or more H5 avian influenza cases in the US before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
