Ireland: Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition Set to Retain Power

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Above: Prime Minister and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaks to the media at Shoreline Leisure Greystones in County Wicklow, Ireland, on Nov. 30, 2024. Image copyright: Niall Carson/Contributor/PA Images via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition is set to form a government in Ireland, after the Fianna Fáil Party won 48 parliamentary seats (Teachta Dála seats) while Fine Gael secured 38. Their combined total of 86 is just shy of the 88 required for a majority.

  • The election saw a 59.7% voter turnout, marking the lowest participation in over a century. First preference votes showed Fianna Fáil at 21.9%, Fine Gael at 20.8%, and Sinn Féin, which is expected to win 40 seats, at 19%.

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The Spin

Narrative A

This election underscores voters' desire for stability, with Fianna Fáil reclaiming leadership under Micheál Martin's strategic competence and steady governance. In contrast, Sinn Féin's sharp decline reflects its failure to offer credible alternatives, reinforcing Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as the reliable choice to steer Ireland forward, likely with support from Independents.

The Irish Times

Narrative B

This election exposes a generational divide and a rightward shift in Irish politics. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael retained power by addressing concerns on migration, free speech, and cultural issues, despite declining dominance. Older generations, who favor the establishment, are keeping it alive, while professionally run right-wing campaigns signal that strategic pragmatism will drive Ireland's gradual rightward shift.

Gript

Metaculus Prediction