ECOWAS Warns of 'Disintegration' If Junta-Led States Split

Above: ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray (center) addresses members of the media during the EU Foreign Ministers informal meeting on August 31, 2023 in Toledo, Spain. Image copyright: Denis Doyle/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) warned on Sunday that the region risks disintegration and further insecurity as juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger break away from the bloc.

  • ECOWAS Commission Pres. Omar Alieu Touray said that the withdrawal of junta-led states would also affect funding and disrupt the freedom of movement. Meanwhile, Senegal's Bassirou Diomaye Faye was selected as an envoy to convince the trio to return to the bloc.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

ECOWAS has proven not only to be ineffective in dealing with terrorism in the Sahel but also a paper tiger of an organization that threatens the sovereignty of its own member states. Therefore, it's only natural that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have left the bloc and decided to establish a confederation of their own, which will not be under the control of foreign powers.

Pro-establishment narrative

As Russia-backed coup leaders in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger move to break away from ECOWAS and form an organization of their own to legitimize their military governments, regional instability and insecurity are set to be aggravated further. Now more than ever, a united bloc of countries is critical to addressing West Africa's challenges.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO