Tech Stocks Are Falling. That’s A Bad Sign For The Economy
TimeJUL 2022
Dow Jones Briefly Hits 40K for First Time
Image copyright: Spencer Platt/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images North America
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The stock market is rallying, and all signs point to the turbulent US economy making a soft landing. While the fight against inflation isn't necessarily over, investors are clearly optimistic about the direction of the economy as market sentiment continues to improve. The stock market is up and inflation is finally cooling, which is all you could want from the economy.
Establishment-critical narrative
The headlines may read that major stock indexes are up, but there are clear signs that the US economy could be heading towards a recession. Huge rises in certain stocks don't change the fact that inflation and interest rates remain quite high with no end in sight. It appears that the stock market is hitting the high end of a very volatile period, but that shouldn't provide much assurance about a supposed "soft landing" for the US economy.
Metaculus Prediction
There is an 18% chance that the S&P 500 will rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
