Reports: Russian Missile Likely Shot Down Azerbaijan Plane

Above: A view of the scene after an Azerbaijan Airlines flight with 67 people on board crashed near the Kazakh Caspian city of Aktau on Dec. 25, 2024. Image copyright: Issa Tazhenbayev/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A Russian surface-to-air missile likely caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash on Christmas Day, four Azerbaijani government sources with access to the preliminary findings of an investigation into the tragedy told Reuters on Thursday. Kazakhstan's chief prosecutor, however, has said that the probe hasn't yet settled on a definitive cause.

  • On Wednesday, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 on board. The plane carried 62 passengers and five crew members; 29 travelers survived the crash, while both pilots died.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

There are clear indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the Azerbaijan Airlines flight on Wednesday. Russia's recklessness in its war with Ukraine likely resulted in its electronic warfare systems paralyzing the aircraft's communications, forcing it to divert across the Caspian Sea rather than land at nearby Russian airports despite requests from the pilots for an emergency landing. This would be an act of negligence, and Russia should be held accountable.

Pro-Russia narrative

The reasons for the crash aren't yet known. What's known so far is that the flight was diverted because of poor weather conditions and crashed during its landing. The aircraft could have experienced a technical failure, or a flock of birds could have collided with it. It's unethical to prematurely point fingers at Moscow when the investigation is underway and police are still conducting forensic examinations.


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