Australia and Indonesia Finalize 'Significant' New Defense Pact

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The Facts

  • After working on it since February 2023, Australia and Indonesia have completed their new defense pact, which is expected to include joint military exercises, deploying soldiers to each other's country, and cooperating in the disputed South China Sea.

  • The agreement was announced in Australia's capital city Canberra by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who is also Indonesia's president-elect.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Australia and Indonesia have a mutual desire to support sovereignty in Southeast Asia, particularly against PRC aggression. However, this is not an alliance or preparation for war, but rather an agreement to boost each other's maritime defense capabilities. Canberra and Jakarta are showing that while Beijing is welcome to increase its economic footprint in the region, any military action in Australian or Indonesian waters will be met with equal force.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West should not overestimate its influence in Southeast Asia. While Indonesia may sign treaties with countries like Australia, it's simultaneously cooperating with China on economic and defense issues. Jakarta has affirmed the one-China policy with Taiwan and is working toward building a security pact with Beijing in the South China Sea. As the US meddles in other Southeast Asian countries' affairs, Indonesia is aware of its need to broker its own peace with China.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO