US-Saudi Talks Begin Amid Reports of Middle East Plan

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • US national security adviser Jake Sullivan held talks with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Thursday.

  • The White House said that the meeting centered on "bilateral and regional matters" including initiatives "for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East." The meeting also coincides with an ongoing effort by the Biden admin. to normalize affairs between Saudi Arabia and Israel — although no mention of Saudi-Israeli relations was mentioned in the post-meeting brief-out.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

With two high-level diplomatic meetings in recent months, both the US and Saudi Arabia have demonstrated a commitment to diplomatic progress. Former Pres. Trump had success in similar agreements, and Biden has the respect to make a true diplomatic breakthrough to further the security for the region and the globe at large.

Establishment-critical narrative

Any possible US-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be time-consuming, difficult, complex, and politically farfetched. The Saudis would likely prefer Trump as an arbiter, Republicans wouldn't want to support Biden, and Democrats disagree with the Kingdom's poor human rights record. It is unlikely that the US has the political capital to make this breakthrough happen anytime soon.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles