U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to go to China after earlier trip postponed amid spy balloon
CBSJUL 2023
US Secretary of State Blinken to Visit China
Image copyright: US Department of State [via Wikimedia Commons]
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
Blinken's visit can be an important push with China to cool tensions over the Ukraine war, Taiwan, the spy balloon saga, and an alleged China-Cuba spy base. But while the US has been redoubling efforts to mend ties with Beijing, it's yet to be seen whether the PRC is willing to thaw bilateral relations.
Pro-China narrative
Blinken's visit will undoubtedly clear the way for face-to-face communication at a high level. However, a thaw can only be achieved when the US starts respecting China's core interests and taking concrete actions to implement its previous commitments. While the US has indeed changed its rhetoric, there's no signal that its true intentions of containing China have changed.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 15% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
