US Official: Israel Can't Reoccupy Gaza, War May Continue in 'Another Phase' for Months

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The Facts

  • White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan continued his diplomatic tour on Friday, meeting with Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas a day after meeting with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. He said the US and Israel were having "intensive discussions" regarding Israel's war goals and its conduct, namely high civilian casualties across Gaza; he confirmed that the war could potentially continue for months but clarified that the US wants Israel to shift its strategy to "more precise ways on targeting the leadership," focusing on "intelligence driven operations."

  • During Sullivan's meeting with Abbas in Ramallah, the two discussed ending the war in Gaza and the US' goals for the strip's post-war leadership. Netanyahu has continually said that Israel will not allow the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank and is led by Abbas, to return to Gaza and that Israel would maintain security control over the strip.; Sullivan said it would neither make "sense" nor be “right” for Israel to reoccupy Gaza.


The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive. Hamas seized upon the temporary pause to mark Israeli positions and prepare itself for continued attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. Indeed, the pace at which Israeli forces maneuvered in Gaza threw Hamas's military leadership off-kilter, and Israel will have to work intelligently in its campaign in the south of the strip to fully eliminate the terrorist group so it can never launch an attack like Oct. 7 again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Unfortunately, the temporary ceasefire only gave civilians a few days of relative rest, and now Israel has returned to killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate. The US, Israel's biggest ally, must exert more pressure to end the war.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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