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U.S. GDP Bump Confounds Expectations Despite Recession Fears
NewsweekNov 25, 2022
The Facts
According to a Conference Board survey released Tuesday, US consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April as worries about the future mounted, further heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year.
With the third decline in the past four months, the board's "expectations index" fell to 68.1 this month from March's 74. A reading under 80 frequently foretells a recession in the coming year.
The Spin
Republican narrative
While no president can receive all the credit for a good or bad economy, the American people are rightfully pessimistic about how Joe Biden has cared for their pocketbooks. The proof is in the pudding with Inflation — particularly gas prices — still up and wages not keeping pace, and the US debt increasing by a whopping $8 trillion. While slow, small improvements have been made recently, 80% of Americans still think the economy is doing poorly, and more than half believe it will worsen over the next year.
Democratic narrative
Despite Republican data cherry-picking, the US economy has improved greatly since Biden took office. From his inauguration through July 2022, the US added over 500K jobs per month. The unemployment rate has also dropped from 6.3% to 3.5% since he assumed office, including significant drops for Black and Hispanic Americans. Though the inflation battle is still ongoing and the Gross Domestic Product decline is real, the US under the Biden admin. has yet to see a recession and the projections are growing more positive by the day.
