UK: Conservatives Lose Two Constituencies in By-Election Defeat

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The Facts

  • The UK's governing Conservative Party has lost the constituencies of Mid Bedford and Tamworth to the Labour Party following two by-elections held on Thursday.

  • In Tamworth, Labour candidate Sarah Edwards won by a margin of 1,316 votes, overturning a majority of 19K in favor of the Conservative Party. In Mid Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern won his seat by 1,192 votes—previously held by the Tory Party by 24K.


The Spin

Right narrative

The defeats are a major plow to the Tory party. While the disgraced exits of Pincher and Dorries certainly played a part, dramatically low turnouts compared to the last general election — as well as the right-wing draw of Reform UK influential in the result — it's clear that the results are too bad to spin, and the party has work to do to regain the public's trust.

Left narrative

The historically bad defeats to the Labour Party show Sunak's embarrassing attempt at a reset fall flat. The Tories look destined for a wipeout in the next general election. Due to the rampant toxicity of the Tory party, Labour's biggest concern should be the likelihood of Sunak and the current government destroying the UK as much as they can in the dwindling time they have in power.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT