Thailand: Ex-Prime Minister Jailed After Exile Return
The Facts
After 15 years in self-imposed exile, Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra returned to the country on a private jet at Bangkok's Don Mueang airport on Tuesday morning before being sent to jail to serve an eight-year prison sentence.
Shinawatra, accused by the military of corruption and disloyalty to the monarchy, was swiftly taken to the Supreme Court, where he was charged with alleged politically motivated criminal offenses.
The Spin
Narrative A
Thailand has been beset by political turmoil, with pro-democracy and pro-establishment leaders being stuck in a cycle of elections and coups for nearly two decades. Despite this, Shinawatra's political dynasty remains intact. Ultimately, his return will end army conscription, break up monopolies, and allow the country to amend a controversial law that criminalizes any criticism of the monarchy.
Narrative B
Shinawatra is accused of corruption, nepotism, and a lack of respect for the rule of law. There's evidence he used his political power for his personal interests. Moreover, his Pheu Thai party is populist and anti-military. Shinawatra is one of the most divisive figures in the country's history and shouldn't be allowed to return to Thailand's diverse political landscape.
Narrative C
The fact that Shinawatra's party has struck a political deal with ex-military rivals to pardon him and cobble together a new government shows that the future of Thailand's democracy is in doubt. Two opposite forces trying to break a political deadlock by redrawing coalitions will destabilize Thailand further.