The Facts
Thai voters on Sunday overwhelmingly backed the opposition parties in nationwide elections, in a blow to the military-aligned establishment that has been ruling Thailand since 2014.
With 99% of the ballots counted on Monday by the Election Commission, Move Forward and Pheu Thai looked set to win 151 and 141 seats, respectively, in the 500-member parliament.
The Spin
Narrative A
This election only offered the illusion of democracy because the military-aligned establishment had already secured a third of the votes for the next prime minister long before the first ballot was cast. It had also already appointed all nine members of the Constitutional Court, which determines when parties are dissolved. The opposition may have won the vote, but it is unlikely that this reflection of popular support will enable them to appoint the next prime minister.
Narrative B
Though the pro-military Senate could indeed join forces with smaller parties to block a Make Forward-Pheu Thai coalition — and it is true that it has appointed judges that can disqualify candidates and parties — this election has shown such strong popular support for the opposition camp that it is very unlikely that the establishment will scheme such chicaneries.
