Taiwan warns of surge in tensions as Chinese fighter jets cross median line
Al JazeeraJUL 2023
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China's "gray zone" warfare tactics, under which it has been regularly crossing Taiwan's air defense zone, are intended to test how far Taipei will go to reinforce the demarcation. It's normalizing increasing levels of military pressure on Taiwan. This may one day mask China's first moves of an actual attack.
Pro-China narrative
The median line of the Taiwan Strait is non-existent and was never recognized by China. Taiwan might want to portray PRC military exercises as "threats," but the People's Liberation Army Air Force can legitimately operate anywhere on and around Taiwan, which is an inseparable part of China.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 39% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
