The Facts

  • South African Pres. Ramaphosa on Thursday announced a national "state of disaster“ over the country’s severe energy crisis in his annual State of the Nation address to parliament.

  • Noting that the power outages, which have struck Africa's most industrialized economy on a daily basis since 2023, pose an "existential threat" to the country's economy and social cohesion, Ramaphosa said the emergency measure will take immediate effect.


The Spin

Narrative A

The dire energy crisis is homegrown, but part of the problem is that South Africa has a growing demand for energy while leading the industrialized world in coal consumption. That's why the government is boldly embracing a plan to switch to renewable energy without sacrificing economic growth. If the transition succeeds — and South Africa receives billions in support — it could boost the economy and make the country a model for coal-dependent countries.

Narrative B

It is unlikely that declaring a state of disaster will change the country's dire energy crisis anytime soon. The measure will not turn an incompetent government into a competent one and will instead lead to less accountability but more corruption. The extreme measure is primarily an expression of desperation, as evidenced by the government's intention to appoint a Minister of Electricity to deal with the crisis. South Africa faces a bleak and shaky future.


Metaculus Prediction