Saudi Crown Prince Says Israel Normalization Deal Getting 'Closer'

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The Facts

  • Saudi Arabia is moving closer to normalizing bilateral relations with Israel, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Wednesday in his first interview on US television since 2019.

  • In the interview, which aired shortly after US Pres. Joe Biden and Israel's PM Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the issue on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler said that "every day we get closer" to normalizing relations with Israel.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Recent developments and bin Salman's statements about normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations are promising. This is also because it's now no longer a question of whether an agreement is possible but of the concrete terms of a deal between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. Moreover, Netanyahu has acknowledged that a rapprochement depends on a solution to the Palestinian issue. The task of normalizing ties is complicated and complex, but the conditions for a historic breakthrough are better than they have been for a long time.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite all the media hype about a possible normalization of Saudi-Israeli ties, Washington's efforts are only the latest in a long line of US diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East. While Biden and Netanyahu seek an agreement with Riyadh for domestic, economic, and geopolitical reasons, bin Salman is in no hurry and is clearly the one setting the direction and pace of negotiations. Expect the usual US-sponsored "peace processing" concerning a possible two-state solution, but no breakthrough in the coming years.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO