Report: Israel Knew About Hamas Plans a Year in Advance; Israeli, US Officials React

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The Facts

  • US and Israeli officials this week pledged to investigate the findings of a New York Times report in which it was alleged that Israeli intelligence officials were aware more than a year in advance that Hamas had been planning a major attack against Israel.

  • According to the report published late last week, Israeli officials obtained a 40-page Hamas battle plan — code-named "Jericho Wall" by Israeli authorities — detailing the group's plans for an attack into southern Israel. The document reportedly described a methodical assault designed to break through the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and towns, and storm key military bases — a plan reflected quite precisely in Hamas's attack on Oct. 7.

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Hamas's brutal Oct. 7 surprise attack laid bare the structural failures of Israel's security and intelligence apparatuses. These failures included Israeli domestic politics overshadowing security concerns, the security establishment completely misjudging Hamas' capabilities and military posture, and, lastly, a failure to imagine such an attack was possible. Israel was so busy with internal squabbles, as well as focusing intelligence resources toward Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, that it neglected Hamas' lethal potential to butcher Israelis.

New York Times

Establishment-critical narrative

Though it may sound conspiratorial, it seems that Israel has exploited Hamas' Oct. 7 attack to ethnically cleanse even more Palestinians from their land. Though some in Israel's security establishment view Oct. 7 as an intelligence oversight, many others see it as an opportunity to take another step in annihilating Palestinian aspirations for freedom. Israel, fully aided by the US, is on the verge of destroying Gaza, something it has long-desired and can now justify to the international community.

Truthout

Narrative C

Ultimately, the primary blame for Oct. 7 and the many intelligence failures that occurred before it falls on Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist allies, who divided the country via his controversial domestic policies. Israel would never have allowed the events of Oct. 7 to proceed if they'd realized the reality of the threat posed by Hamas, but Israeli forces who should have been defending southern communities were deployed to the West Bank to protect extremist settlers with whom Netanyahu had formed a political alliance. Netanyahu has blood on his hands, and once the war ends, he will likely be replaced.

MSNBC

Metaculus Prediction

Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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