North Korea Claims Test of Submarine-Launched Cruise Missiles

Image copyright: KCNA [via The Korea Times]

The Facts

  • North Korea on Sunday reportedly test-fired two submarine-launched cruise missiles off its eastern coast amid what Pyongyang claims are "frantic war preparation moves" by the US and South Korea.

  • According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the exercise was intended to confirm the weapon system's effectiveness as part of Pyongyang's "nuclear deterrent." Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, which are difficult to intercept, are not subject to UN sanctions against Pyongyang.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Although the US and its allies blame Pyongyang for rising tensions, there is no doubt that Washington bears primary responsibility for having led diplomatic relations to a dead end, especially since the Biden administration switched back to a confrontational course following Donald Trump's efforts to de-escalate through negotiations. By fueling the conflict to forge closer ties with Japan and South Korea to increase its military footprint in the Indo-Pacific region, the US risks an incalculable escalation.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's time to acknowledge that the strategy of persuading Pyongyang to make concessions through a policy mix of negotiation and deterrence has failed. Instead, Washington should resort to a strategy that has already proven successful and aim to collapse the regime from within via a media campaign to educate North Koreans about the country's desolate human rights situation. A rising population is the best way to achieve complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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